Urgent adaptation measures need to be adopted

According to a landmark government study just published, flooding and disruption to international supply chains are the biggest climate risks faced by British businesses, .

The government is currently spending £1.2bn a year to keep floodwaters in check, but according to the report the cost is likely to have escalated to £12bn a year by 2070 as rising sea levels and increased bouts of heavy rainfall take their toll. Moreover, a significant increase in flooding damage could occur as early as the 2020s unless adaptation measures are deployed

The Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA), which runs to over 1,000 pages, will be published today by Defra, drawing on input from Sir John Beddington, the government’s chief scientific adviser, the Committee on Climate Change’s adaptation committee, and peer-reviewed work from leading climate scientists.

It highlights the top 100 climate challenges the UK will face through to 2100 if global action is not taken to slash greenhouse gas emissions over the next decade.

The report also identifies the huge economic risks that will result from climate impacts, warning that insurance costs to businesses are likely to spiral as flood risk increases, while in some cases coverage and other financial commitments such as mortgages will be almost impossible to obtain.

“If I had to pick one particular issue, I think the flooding issue is the most dominant,” Professor Sir Bob Watson, chief scientific adviser at Defra, told reporters.

“The climate projections show, especially in winter, significantly more precipitation but also more heavy precipitation and less light precipitation. And over the very long term you would also get sea level rise for coastal flooding. Flooding is something that we believe will become increasingly more severe almost immediately.”

Defra has not put a figure on what it thinks the financial cost to the economy from climate change may be, but will attempt to calculate this in the forthcoming National Adaptation Plan (NAP), set for release next year.

However, Environment Secretary Caroline Spelman pointed out the disruption caused by heavy snow this time last year cost businesses £600m a day, while the flooding in July 2007 racked up a bill of £3bn over a couple of days.

She also defended the government decision to scale back spending on flood defences, claiming that the £2.17bn it plans to invest over the next four years represents better value for money than previous plans and will protect an additional 145,000 households by March 2015.

“We’ve changed the way in which defence is provided [as] some communities would like to make a contribution to protecting themselves from flooding,” Spelman said. “So one of the consequences of the partnership approach to funding is we will be able to stretch those resources further… [and] you can get more homes protected for the same amount of money.”

She also warned that UK businesses may be less aware of – or prepared for – the potential disruption to overseas supply chains caused by extreme weather and other climate change impacts. The UK had invested £1tr in foreign companies by the end of 2009 and received £654bn in return, much of which could face climate-related risks, according to the report.

The study predicts that in addition to increased flood risks the UK will also face more water shortages and droughts, while cities will have to adapt to rising temperatures which due to the urban heat island effect could see a loss in the number of productive days in large cities like London.

The report does note that a shifting climate will also provide opportunities for UK plc, for example, opening up more direct shipping routes and offering a boost to industries such as tourism.

“There are some opportunities of industry moving to a low carbon economy, also some benefits to some of the other sectors… such as the leisure industry,” Watson said. “On balance, the threats outweigh the opportunities, but there are opportunities we can grab on to and we should grab on to.”

Defra will now step up work on its NAP that will set out how the public and private sector can best manage the climate risks the UK faces.

The Big Six energy companies and major infrastructure bodies such as the National Grid, Highways Agency and airports have already submitted resilience strategies that will feed into the NAP when it is published in 2013. Other industries are also being invited to contribute to the report, while ministers are urging firms to ensure they undertake their own climate resilience planning.

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